Why 2026 will be the best year to buy a used electric vehicle

The tax credit may disappear. But with an influx of off-lease electric vehicles hitting the market, you’ll soon have better choice than ever.

• Car-buying site Edmunds predicts a huge surge in lease surrenders in 2026.

• These will include electric vehicles, many of which were leased during the tax credit period.

• Coupled with depreciation, this means a huge supply of low-mileage EVs is hitting lots of dealerships, many with excellent range and outstanding features.

Some people say that, given recent trends, the auto industry made the wrong bet on electric vehicles. I see things differently. I think he bet wrong on high prices.

New car prices have skyrocketed to about $50,000 this year, and EV models have risen even more, especially after the $7,500 federal tax credit disappeared. You can blame a number of trends for this. Inflation is certainly one of them. But by and large, automakers looked at the car-buying trends of the 2010s — when Americans kept going bigger, better and prettier — and anticipated that they, too, could keep going up and up forever.

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Today, with interest rates still high and inflation lingering, people feel differently about new car purchases. More than ever, I’m after a good deal. And in 2026, the used EV market looks set to deliver.

New data from the car buying site Edmunds indicates that next year will see an increase in the number of off-lease vehicles returning to the market. “The sharp decline in leasing activity from 2022 left 2025 with unusually thin inventories of lower-mileage, near-new vehicles, limiting affordable options for many buyers,” Edmunds analysts said. “As leasing began to pick up in 2023, leasing revenue from 2026 will begin to help fill a gap that was particularly visible in 2025.”

If you want numbers around that, Edmunds estimates that around 400,000 additional returns will return to the market in 2026. “A healthier flow of off-lease returns will give consumers more flexibility – especially those who are out of the new vehicle market or want to avoid today’s higher monthly payments,” the analysts said.

They don’t say it explicitly, but I’ll take it a step further: It’s shaping up to be a great year to get a great, affordable used EV.

That Edmunds notes in this data, about 71% of electric vehicles sold in recent years were leased. That stemmed from a quirk in the electric vehicle tax credit rules: To qualify for the full $7,500, a car had to be built in North America — but if it was leased, any electric vehicle qualified for the credit, regardless of where it was made. And car makers have started offering obscenely cheap lease deals just to entice people to go electric. So almost everyone who got a new EV in recent years has leased it (including yours truly).

But since most leases last two or three years, many of these EVs will be back next year (including yours truly). And the depreciation of electric vehicles has been, unfortunately, steep—about 13 percent or more than gasoline cars, in part because there is no standard to gauge battery health. However, these owners initial losses could soon be your gain. Many well-equipped used EVs now sell for $30,000 or less, often with great range, tons of features, and more power than a comparable gas car.

Take the Ford Mustang Mach-E, still a staff favorite after all these years. Conformable CarGurus data, they now sell for an average of $28,970, which made me spit out my drink when I read that. If you’re buying a lease, like a 2023 Mach-E Premium with 290 to 306 miles of range, lots of tech, and probably less than 30,000 miles on the odometer. Find me such a good gas car deal. I will wait. Or give in to your evil side and get the 480 horsepower Mach-E GT. They can also be had for much cheaper than they were originally.

Or the Kia EV6, which I have. My car was over $50,000 when I got it (thanks, cheap leases). Today, CarGurus says their average retail prices are around $27,427 as of this writing. Again, that gets you into a comfortable, family-friendly crossover with great performance, about 300 miles of range, Tesla Supercharger access (via an adapter), and best-in-class charging speeds for under $30K.

And the Tesla Model Y is still hard to beat, especially if you’re buying used. right now CarGurus say they retail for about $29,429 on the used market, and that gets you a lot of car for not a ton of money.

But if you’re new to buying electric vehicles, you might be thinking: What about the battery? The good news is that study after study shows that modern EV batteries hold up remarkably well. With a lease of about 30,000 miles or so, you’re unlikely to see any real battery degradation – and therefore a loss of range – for a long time. On older Teslas, I’ve seen plenty of examples surpass 200,000 and even 300,000 miles with 80% battery capacity or more. It’s just not as much of a problem as people think it is.

The Electric Vehicle Tax Credit used to include a rebate of up to $4,000 for used models, but unfortunately that’s no longer the case. But depreciation still opens the door to many. So if you’ve been putting off car shopping until 2026, your patience may soon pay off if you switch to electric – and then you probably won’t be going back to petrol.

Contact the author: patrick.george@insideevs.com