Why does mandatory disarmament of Hamas remain so elusive?

Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, say they will not release billions in reconstruction aid until Hamas disarms and enforces security guarantees.

The metal gates of the Rafah crossing opened Monday morning for the first time in nearly two years. But just five medical patients and their attendants, along with just over a dozen others who passed through on the first day, were a stark illustration of how far the Gaza ceasefire remains from fulfilling its promises.

Families camped overnight in the cold outside the crossing, waiting through Israeli and Egyptian biometric security checks for several hours.

Ambulances lined both sides of the border, transporting critical medical cases through checkpoints where European Union monitors oversaw processing. On the Egyptian side, the aid staging areas were empty. Aid workers described confusion over coordination and next steps.

Slow processing and strict security protocols reflect broader tensions. But the real battle is not about crossing the border. It’s about weapons.

President Donald Trump insists Hamas will disarm “because they have no choice”. His special envoy, Steve Witkoff, says the group “will give up the AK-47.” Senior Hamas officials say the conversation never took place.

“Our priority has always been to stop the war and protect civilians, not to negotiate arms,” ​​senior Hamas official Mousa Abu Marzook told Al Jazeera last week. US proposals ranging from an arms freeze to complete disarmament were discussed in theory, he said, but never became part of formal negotiations.

This disengagement now depends on everything labeled “phase two”: reconstruction, governance and long-term security. Phase two really came into focus last week with the return of the remains of the last Israeli hostage. What happens next, however, is still unclear.

There is no mechanism to enforce disarmament

No international force has been deployed to Gaza to collect or verify weapons. There is no mechanism to enforce disarmament. More than two dozen countries are participating in the coordination meetings on the future of Gaza. None employed troops.

“Phase two has been announced, but in reality it hasn’t started because Hamas rejects many of the basics and nobody is forcing compliance,” Edmund Fitton-Brown, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, who previously led the UN Security Council’s monitoring team on Islamic State and al-Qaeda, told The Media Line. “The announcement was premature. It reflected diplomatic optimism rather than facts on the ground.”

“Israel cannot demilitarize Hamas alone, especially in areas where Israeli forces are no longer present,” Fitton-Brown said. “Forcible disarmament would require a transitional authority backed by an international stabilization force.”

“Without a monopoly on coercion, there is no government,” Fitton-Brown said. “If Hamas keeps its weapons and organized armed units, it keeps its power, regardless of what administrative structures exist on paper.”

Convincing countries to commit forces proved impossible. Egypt has ruled out deploying troops to Gaza. European countries will support government structures but not provide combat forces. Turkey supports Hamas politically. Gulf states that could finance the reconstruction will not commit forces.

“A lot of countries want their flag present, but it’s not their soldiers who are in danger,” Fitton-Brown said. “That defeats the purpose.”

Israel will not compromise on demilitarization. “The Israeli government has made it very clear that it will not compromise on the demilitarization of Hamas,” Avi Melamed, a former Israeli intelligence official and founder of Inside the Middle East, told The Media Line. “This is not just the position of the current government. Any Israeli government would demand the dismantling of Hamas’ military capabilities.”

At the same time, Melamed said Israel does not expect Hamas to disarm voluntarily. “No one is under any illusion that Hamas will disarm itself,” he said. “Demilitarization does not mean removing every weapon. It is mainly about offensive weapons – missiles and advanced weapons that can be used against Israeli territory. Israel’s priority is to eliminate Hamas’ ability to manufacture missiles and dismantle its command structure.”

But even this limited definition creates a practical dilemma. Achieving this would require renewed Israeli military operations, which would undermine the ceasefire, or the deployment of an external force willing to confront Hamas directly. None currently exist, barring renewed Israeli military action that could collapse the ceasefire.

Hamas is pushing to include its roughly 10,000-strong police force in the new governing architecture. According to multiple sources, Hamas has urged its civilian and security personnel to cooperate with the US-backed Gaza National Committee while seeking to formally incorporate its police. Israel rejected the proposal. The force is inseparable from the broader Hamas security apparatus, Israeli officials say.

An internal Hamas document obtained by Israeli broadcaster Kan reveals the group’s strategy to maintain control while appearing to cooperate. The directive tells administrators to maintain normal work routines while banning them from attacking members of the new technocrat government on social media. The key instruction: “No personal contact should be made or information and news communicated to them except through the competent authority.” Hamas itself retains control over all communication channels.

Israeli military intelligence assessments provided to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warn that Hamas continues to deepen its governance structures and take concrete steps to retain influence by integrating members into government ministries and the security apparatus, according to Israeli officials who spoke on condition of anonymity.

“Hamas does not want to openly reject the peace plan because that would provoke a decisive response from Washington and possibly Israel,” Fitton-Brown said. “Instead, Hamas signals conditional cooperation while avoiding actual compliance.”

Hamas’s messages have been deliberately contradictory. Some figures openly say they will never disarm. Others suggest the weapons could be stored, frozen rather than surrendered. This reflected a tactical debate within Hamas, not a real desire to disarm.

Hamas officials have accused ongoing Israeli military operations of blocking the functioning of the technocratic committee, arguing that the group’s priority is to allow the independent national committee to assume responsibilities in Gaza.

Israeli officials see this as confirmation that Hamas intends to keep the armed forces organized under a new administrative label.

Assessing Hamas’ remaining capabilities is difficult. Before October 2023, Israeli and US officials estimated that Hamas possessed between 15,000 and 30,000 rockets, along with large stockpiles of small arms, anti-tank weapons, drones and an extensive network of tunnels. Israeli officials now say most of the capabilities have been destroyed or degraded, but acknowledge that Hamas has residual weapons, substantial underground infrastructure and organized armed cells capable of limited attacks.

“In the current context, rapid or forced disarmament is unrealistic and would require coordination with Hamas and a gradual process,” Adel al-Ghoul, Palestinian political analyst and head of the Paris-based Center for Security Studies and International Relations, told The Media Line.

“The approach most widely discussed internationally is not disarmament by force, but gradual limitation and neutralization of weapons through stronger Palestinian security institutions, improved economic conditions, and incentives for stability in the face of chaos.”

The reopening of the crossing offered a glimpse of limited progress. Young and elderly Palestinians waiting in line spoke of relief mixed with frustration. Glad to see some movement after almost two years. Angry at how marginal streams remain.

Meanwhile, recovery on the ground continues gradually. The UN Development Program has cleared about 50,000 tonnes of debris since the ceasefire began in October, including at a new Khan Yunis crushing facility, which processes about 1,000 tonnes daily. But UN estimates suggest Gaza contains more than 40 million tonnes of debris that will take years to remove.

The wider rebuild remains stalled. A post-war redevelopment proposal championed by Jared Kushner and unveiled in Davos last month calls for up to 100,000 housing units in a rebuilt “New Rafah”, along with schools, hospitals and commercial areas. The plan explicitly conditions large-scale construction on the verified disarmament of Hamas.

The United States has not committed funding for large-scale reconstruction. Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, say they will not release billions in reconstruction aid until Hamas disarms and enforces security guarantees. Requirements that have not yet been clearly defined or implemented.

Israeli airstrikes continue across Gaza despite ceasefire. Health officials say more than 500 Palestinians have been killed since the ceasefire began last October. Israel says the attacks target Hamas military operatives and weapons infrastructure.

Talks about deploying international forces continue but remain entirely preliminary. No country has offered concrete troop commitments. The technocratic committee tasked with governing Gaza has been announced but has yet to begin functioning in any meaningful way.

“Hamas still maintains social and organizational influence on the ground, even where its military role has declined,” al-Ghoul said. “Any new administration should rely on indirect coordination or avoid direct confrontation.”