DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — Widening protests in Iran, sparked by the Islamic Republic’s struggling economy, are putting new pressure on its theocracy.
Tehran is still reeling from a 12-day war launched by Israel in June, in which the United States bombed nuclear sites in Iran. Economic pressure, intensified in September by the return of United Nations sanctions on the country over its nuclear program, sent the Iranian rial into freefall, now trading at around $1.4 million.
Meanwhile, Iran’s “Axis of Resistance” — a coalition of countries and militant groups backed by Tehran — has been decimated in the years since the start of the Israel-Hamas war in 2023.
A new threat by US President Donald Trump warning Iran that if Tehran “violently kills peaceful protesters” the US will “come to their rescue” took on new meaning after US troops captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, a longtime ally of Tehran.
Here’s what you need to know about the protests and challenges facing Iran’s government.
How widespread the protests are
Demonstrations have reached more than 170 locations in 25 of Iran’s 31 provinces, the US-based Human Rights Activists news agency reported Sunday morning. The death toll has risen to at least 15, it added, with more than 580 arrests. The group, which relies on a network of activists in Iran for its reporting, has been accurate in past unrest.
Comprehending the scale of the protests was difficult. Iranian state media provided little information about the demonstrations. Online videos offer only brief, shaky images of people on the streets or the sound of gunfire. Journalists in general in Iran also face limits on reporting, such as requiring permission to travel within the country, as well as the threat of harassment or arrest by the authorities.
But the protests do not appear to be stopping, even after Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said on Saturday that “the rioters must be put in their place”.
Why did the demonstrations start?
The collapse of the rial has led to a growing economic crisis in Iran. Prices are higher for meat, rice and other staples of the Iranian table. The nation is struggling with an annual inflation rate of around 40%.
In December, Iran introduced a new price level for nationally subsidized gasoline, raising the price of some of the cheapest gas in the world and putting further pressure on the population. Tehran could be looking for steeper price increases in the future as the government will now review prices every three months.
The protests first started with traders in Tehran before spreading. Although initially focused on economic issues, the demonstrations soon saw protesters chanting anti-government slogans as well. Anger has simmered over the years, particularly after the 2022 death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini in police custody, which sparked nationwide demonstrations.
Iran’s alliances are weakened
Iran’s “axis of resistance,” which rose to prominence in the years after the 2003 US-led invasion and subsequent occupation of Iraq, is reeling.
Israel crushed Hamas in the devastating war in the Gaza Strip. Hezbollah, the Shiite militant group in Lebanon, saw its top leadership killed by Israel and has been fighting ever since. A lightning offensive in December 2024 toppled President Bashar Assad, Iran’s longtime ally and client in Syria, after years of war there. Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen have also been hit by Israeli and US airstrikes.
Meanwhile, China remained a major buyer of Iranian crude but did not offer overt military support. Neither did Russia, which relied on Iranian drones in its war against Ukraine.
The West is concerned about Iran’s nuclear program
Iran has insisted for decades that its nuclear program is peaceful. However, its officials have increasingly threatened to pursue a nuclear weapon. Iran enriched uranium to near weapons-grade levels before the US attack in June, making it the only country in the world without a nuclear weapons program to do so.
Tehran has also increasingly reduced its cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency, the UN’s nuclear watchdog, as tensions over its nuclear program have risen in recent years. The director general of the IAEA has warned that Iran could build up to 10 nuclear bombs if it decides to weaponize its program.
US intelligence agencies assessed that Iran had not yet begun a weapons program but had “undertaken activities that better position it to produce a nuclear device if it chooses to do so”.
Iran recently said it is no longer enriching uranium anywhere in the country, seeking to signal to the West that it remains open to potential sanctions relief on its nuclear program. But there was no meaningful discussion in the months after the June war.
Why Iran-US relations are so strained
Iran decades ago was one of the United States’ most important allies in the Middle East under Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, who purchased American military weapons and allowed CIA technicians to run secret listening posts monitoring the neighboring Soviet Union. The CIA fomented a 1953 coup that cemented the Shah’s rule.
But in January 1979, the shah, suffering from cancer, fled Iran as mass demonstrations against his rule grew. Then came the Islamic Revolution led by Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, which created the theocratic government of Iran.
Later that year, university students stormed the US Embassy in Tehran, demanding the Shah’s extradition and triggering the 444-day hostage crisis that led to the severance of diplomatic relations between Iran and the US.
During the Iran-Iraq war of the 1980s, the US supported Saddam Hussein. During that conflict, the U.S. launched a day-long assault that crippled Iran at sea as part of the so-called “Tank War” and later shot down an Iranian commercial airliner that the U.S. military said it mistook for a warplane.
Iran and the US have veered between enmity and reluctant diplomacy in the years since, with relations reaching a peak with the 2015 nuclear deal, which saw Iran severely curtail its program in exchange for the lifting of sanctions. But Trump unilaterally withdrew America from the deal in 2018, stoking tensions in the Middle East that escalated after the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack on Israel.