About a week ago, meteorologists from local television stations in the Triangle were warning viewers of a significant winter stormone that could bring enough ice accumulation to cause widespread power outages and dangerous travel conditions.
As the weekend progressed, precipitation fell across central North Carolina. But it came more like sleet and less like freezing rain. While black ice remained a concern for several mornings and nights, power outages were isolated.
Many on social media thanked forecasters for their work before, during and after the storm. But other people seemed upset that the forecasts didn’t materialize, that the impacts weren’t as significant as forecasters had warned.
“I can’t predict what’s going to happen in 12 hours, but people like you tell us what’s going to happen to the world 50 years from now…do better or reimburse me and the linemen for the time and money we spend preparing for inaccuracies,” one person commented on a Facebook post by WRAL’s Chris Michaels.
“When can we admit that all forecasters were horrible?” another wrote in a post by CBS 17’s Wes Hohenstein.
Hearing mixed reviews from viewers and others after a weather event is not unusual, meteorologists who spoke to The News & Observer said.
“Over the years, as meteorologists, we’ve gotten a pretty thick skin,” he said Hohensteinthe chief meteorologist at CBS 17.
But recently, the feedback has been different.
Don “Big Weather” Schwenneker, ABC11’s chief meteorologist, gives a forecast for the upcoming Triangle snowstorm.
(Courtesy of ABC11)
Don “Big Weather” Schwennekerthe chief meteorologist at ABC11heard from people after last weekend’s storm “blamed” him for not seeing a foot of snow — an amount Schwenneker never had in his forecasts.
“This past storm was the worst example I’ve seen because there are so many unqualified people just making a forecast online that it all adds up,” he said.
Just a few days ago, Schwenneker saw, in about 15 minutes, 53 people on TikTok make inaccurate predictions. None of them were meteorologists. And the reason people do it, Schwenneker said, is for engagement — opinions — and, consequently, money.
“I think people need to realize that when they see someone in their feed, whether it’s TikTok, Instagram, whatever, they could be posting a terrible forecast just for you to watch,” Schwenneker said.
The number of bad forecasts prompted Schwenneker to post a “revenge” on Facebook, highlighting his and other forecasters’ qualifications.
And he wasn’t the only one. Michaels, a WRAL meteorologisthe also took to social media to respond to criticism in the form of one of his letters to “Dearest Mother”.
“Most villagers express kindness and understanding at the delicacy of such a forecast. A small minority choose to reveal their inner rage in our predictions,” Michaels wrote. “Never mind that, Mom.”
Why predictions are not always accurate
Michaels has a degree in meteorology from NC State and has worked as a meteorologist for more than a decade. Schwenneker has been a meteorologist for 30 years and holds the Certified Broadcast Meteorologist seal from the American Meteorological Society and a Seal of Approval from the National Weather Association. Hohenstein, who has been a meteorologist for nearly 30 years, including 20 in central North Carolina, has a degree in meteorology and a seal of approval from the American Meteorological Society.
The minute-long forecasts that viewers see on TV last for hours. Meteorologists look at a variety of sources including data from weather balloons, computer models and climatology. It is also based on your own experience.
“We know what happens a lot of the time. We know what happens most of the time,” Hohenstein said. “We know what to look out for that could mess up our forecast.”
Don “Big Weather” Schwenneker, ABC11’s chief meteorologist, gives a forecast for the upcoming Triangle snowstorm.
(Courtesy of ABC11)
However, forecasts are not always 100% accurate.
Before last weekend, for example, Schwenneker predicted total ice accumulation of 0.5 inches to 0.75 inches, but noted that more sleet would reduce total ice accumulation. The triangle didn’t get that much ice because more sleet fell than originally expected.
“We do a 10-day forecast on TV every day — so it’s 10 high temperatures, 10 low temperatures, 10 chances of precipitation,” Hohenstein said. “And for all of that to be 100 percent correct for our little part of this planet that spins on its axis, 70 percent water, and revolves around a giant fireball called the sun, it’s hard to do. We’ve gotten good at it over the years, but it’s still not perfect.”
Snow is coming to the Triangle this weekend
With snow in the weekend forecast, some in the Triangle are using Friday, Jan. 30, to prepare. Earle Whitsett loads a shovel into his vehicle after buying supplies at Woods Farm & Garden in Hillsborough.
(Kaitlin McKeown/The News & Observer)
Over the next 24 hours, snow will begin to fall in central North Carolina, forecasters say.
Forecasters continue to adjust their expectations for snow totals throughout the weekend.
Schwenneker predicts something else: a repeat of the feedback received after last weekend.
“Some people will get 3 inches and some people will get 12 inches,” Schwenneker said Thursday. “And those who get three will say, ‘You’re dead wrong.’ And those who get 12 will say, “I thought we should get 16.” So it’s all part of the job.”
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