SINGAPORE, Feb 3 (Reuters) – Indian shares and the rupee are poised for strong gains on Tuesday after a trade deal cut U.S. tariffs on Indian goods to 18 percent from 50 percent in exchange for India halting purchases of Russian oil and reducing trade barriers.
Here are some comments from investors and analysts:
RADHIKA RAO, SENIOR ECONOMIST, DBS, SINGAPORE:
“This finding is unmistakably positive for the real economy/exports, sentiment as well as financial markets, while more details are awaited. Textiles, gems and jewellery, engineering, leather and chemicals are likely to be among the main winners.”
“An eventual reveal of the bilateral trade deal will provide more details on the beneficiary product lines and trade as well as investment commitments. Domestic markets are expected to witness a turnaround at the open after high tariffs were one of the main drivers of sentiment in the last quarter.”
CHARU CHANANA, CHIEF INVESTMENT STRATEGIST, SAXO, SINGAPORE:
“This is constructive for Indian stocks as it reduces trade policy uncertainty and improves visibility for export-related earnings – exactly the kind of catalyst that can restart the narrative when global investors have been cautious. But there’s a lot we still don’t know. If the oil bill rises significantly, that may reintroduce inflation and currency sensitivity.”
“The structural story remains strong, and the latest budget infrastructure and AI boost keep the catch-up theme alive. For foreign investors, however, the next hurdle is the Indian rupee, which means the market may look less like a one-way beta trade and more like a spread market.”
MARC VELAN, HEAD OF INVESTMENTS, LUCERNE ASSET MANAGEMENT, SINGAPORE:
“The trade deal removes some of the policy and tariff uncertainty that has weighed on Indian assets, opening the door for a near-term rebound in the rupee and equities on sentiment and external flows, although sustainability will depend more on how the deal is implemented than on the stock itself.”
TRIDEEP BHATTACHARYA, PRESIDENT & CIO, EQUITIES, EDELWEISS ASSET MANAGEMENT, MUMBAI:
“The reduction in tariffs from around 50% to ~18% has come in significantly better than consensus expectations. When combined with the recently concluded India-EU trade deal, this is potentially one of the strongest external growth drivers for the Indian economy in 2026.”
LAKSHMAN VENKITARAMAN, ASSOCIATE PORTFOLIO MANAGER, WASTACH GLOBAL, SALT LAKE CITY:
“We believe the trade agreement improves investor sentiment towards India. While the US is India’s largest trading partner, exports to the US account for less than 5% of India’s GDP. However, trade frictions between the US and India have affected foreign investor perception. This has been compounded by a global trade focus on AI, which has also benefited the Korean and Taiwan markets.