By Brenda Goh and Laurie Chen
SHANGHAI/BEIJING, Jan 4 (Reuters) – A U.S. attack on Venezuela will encourage China to strengthen its territorial claims over areas such as Taiwan and parts of the South China Sea, but will not hasten any potential invasion of Taiwan, analysts said.
Chinese President Xi Jinping’s views on Taiwan and its timeline are separate from the situation in Latin America, influenced more by China’s domestic situation than US actions, they said.
Still, analysts said, President Donald Trump’s bold move on Saturday, capturing Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro, presents China with an unexpected opportunity that Beijing is likely to use in the short term to amplify criticism of Washington and strengthen its own position on the international stage.
Further, Beijing could capitalize on Trump’s move to defend its position vis-à-vis the US on territorial issues, including Taiwan, Tibet and islands in the East and South China Seas.
“CHEAP AMMUNITION” FOR A CHINA PUSHBACK
“Washington’s consistent and long-standing arguments have always been that China’s actions violate international law, but now they are damaging it,” said William Yang, an analyst at the International Crisis Group, a Brussels-based NGO.
“It really creates a lot of openings and cheap ammunition for the Chinese to push back against the US in the future.”
China claims that Taiwan is democratically governed as its own province – a claim the island’s government rejects – and claims almost all of the South China Sea, a position that puts it at odds with several Southeast Asian nations that also claim parts of the vital trade route.
China’s Foreign Ministry and Taiwan Affairs Office and Taiwan’s presidential office did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
Beijing condemned Trump’s attack on Venezuela, saying it violated international law and threatened peace and security in Latin America. He asked the US to release Maduro and his wife, who are being held in New York awaiting trial.
Hours before his capture, Maduro met with a high-level Chinese delegation in Caracas, according to photos he posted on his Instagram page.
China’s foreign ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the whereabouts of the delegation, which included China’s special representative for Latin American and Caribbean affairs, Qiu Xiaoqi.
On Sunday, China’s official news agency Xinhua called the US attack “hegemonic behavior no”.
“The US invasion has made everyone increasingly see that the so-called ‘rules-based international order’ in the mouth of the United States is actually just a ‘prey order based on US interests,'” the state-run Xinhua news agency said.
“CHINA IS NOT THE USA, TAIWAN IS NOT VENEZUELA”
Taiwan, in particular, is facing increasing pressure from Beijing. China surrounded the island last week in its most extensive war games to date, showing Beijing’s ability to cut off the island from outside support in a conflict.
But analysts said they did not expect China to capitalize on the Venezuelan situation to escalate it into an attack anytime soon.
“Taking over Taiwan depends on China’s emerging but still insufficient capacity, rather than what Trump has done on a distant continent,” said Shi Yinhong, a professor of international relations at Beijing’s Renmin University.
Neil Thomas, a China policy fellow at the Asia Society, said China sees Taiwan as an internal affair and is therefore unlikely to cite US actions against Venezuela as a precedent for any cross-strait military strikes.
“Beijing will want a sharp contrast with Washington to trumpet its claims to support peace, development and moral leadership,” Thomas said. “Xi doesn’t care about Venezuela any more than he cares about China. He will hope it turns into a quagmire for the United States.”
Wang Ting-yu, a senior lawmaker from Taiwan’s ruling party who sits on parliament’s foreign affairs and defense committee, rejected the idea that China could follow the US lead and strike Taiwan.
“China has never lacked hostility towards Taiwan, but it really lacks the feasible means,” Wang posted on Facebook. “China is not the United States and Taiwan is certainly not Venezuela.
Still, the situation magnifies risks for Taiwan and could pressure Taipei to seek more favors from the Trump administration, some observers said.
On China’s Weibo social media platform, talk of the US attack trended strongly on Sunday, with several users saying Beijing should learn from what Trump did.
Lev Nachman, a professor of political science at National Taiwan University, said he expected the Taiwanese government to express mildly worded support for US action on Venezuela. Taiwan has yet to make any statement.
“What I think Trump’s actions could do is help Xi Jinping’s narrative in the future create more justification for action against Taiwan,” he said.
(Reporting by Brenda Goh in Shanghai and Laurie Chen in Beijing; Additional reporting by Yimou Lee and Ben Blanchard in Taipei)