Will winning a vote of confidence be enough to save Humza Yousaf?

The First Minister has previously faced criticism from his own party over the impact on the SNP and the country of the Greens’ approach to economic and social policy.

Mr Yousaf knows this and his bid to regain control of a narrative that is in danger of slipping away from him began on Friday in Dundee.

He was due to be in Glasgow to give a speech on “the labor market in an independent Scotland”.

Instead, Mr Yousaf walked around the construction site, trying to look purposeful in a helmet and high-visibility vest.

“You ask people about housing and it’s one of the most important issues that comes up on the doorstep,” the First Minister told me.

Right now, though, he doesn’t have to convince people on the doorstep. These are opposition politicians in the Scottish Parliament.

There are 63 Scottish National Party MPs in Holyrood. There are 65 opposition MPs.

If every member of the opposition voted against Mr Youssaf in a personal vote of confidence, he would lose and, although he is not legally required to resign, the political pressure to do so would be enormous.

If Mr Youssaf can convince some or all of the seven-member Greens cohort to change their mind about opposing him, he could survive.

Another possibility is that he could win the support of Ash Regan, his former SNP leadership rival, who jumped ship to Alex Salmond’s Alba party in October.

Mrs. Reagan was setting a price for her support – and it was growing.

At first, she called for competent government, a renewed focus on independence and action to protect the “dignity, safety and rights of women and children”, a reference to the gender debate at the heart of many of Mr Yusuf’s problems.

Ms Regan then added to the list actions to safeguard the future of the Grangemouth refinery on the Firth of Forth.

Mr Yousaf has written to Holyrood leaders of all parties suggesting meetings to discuss how to “make a minority government work”.

Speaking to BBC News, Mrs Regan appeared to hint that this would not be enough.

She also revealed that she had not had a single conversation with Mr Yousaf since he defeated her in the leadership race last spring.

Mrs Regan said: “Some of the things you said about me when I left to go to another political party last year probably show that it’s always wise to have that level of professional courtesy to the people you work with. “

Mr Yousaf described his former SNP rival’s departure as “not a very big loss”.

Speaking to BBC Radio Scotland, Central Scotland Green MSP Gillian Mackay defended the power-sharing deal that was originally struck under Nicola Sturgeon in 2021.

“What the First Minister is basically saying to us is ‘you’ve ditched, but can we still be friends?'” she said.

“I’m quite upset actually,” Ms Mackay said, clearly in tears, adding: “We don’t want to be in this position but this is the first minister who has put us here.”

There was a glimmer of some regret from Mr Yousaf for all that emotion when he told me he felt for Greens co-leaders Patrick Harvey and Lorna Slater, who he had kicked out of his government, costing them their ministerial posts .

He didn’t “intend to upset them,” he told me, adding that he understood why they were so angry.

Would his letter to them contain an apology?

Either way, the back channels between the SNP and opposition parties are now open.

Spinning and trading is in progress.

After the Bute House deal failed, he described it as “a Faustian pact that would have led us to the gates of electoral hell”.

How did he win over the likes of Mr Ewing, Mrs Regan and former SNP finance secretary Kate Forbes, whom he narrowly beat to become leader, while reaching out to the left wing of his party and the Greens?

Put more bluntly: after a week of upheaval, how can he survive for long, even if he narrowly wins a vote of confidence?

The answer, according to another senior source close to Mr Yousaf, was brutal – “he can’t”.