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China faced economic hardship, high-level purges, social discontent, extreme weather and a deteriorating geopolitical environment in 2023, but things are unlikely to improve “much” in 2024, according to a new report on Tuesday from Asia Society Policy Institute’s China Analysis Center, which identified 10 likely trends in the country this year.
The center “largely foresees a worrisome year ahead for China as challenges continue to mount — although some positive opportunities, at home and abroad, present themselves as possible exceptions,” he notes.
“Erosion of trust is the main theme” of the report, Jing Qian, co-founder and managing director of the center, said by email today. “There is an old saying in Chinese quoted in the calligraphy report — 无信不立 — without trust nothing stands.”
Covered are 10 report developments to watch:
* China’s economy will continue to struggle.” China’s economy next year,” the survey said.
* Prioritizing security concerns will weigh on growth. “President Xi’s laser focus on security, stability and national ‘self-reliance’ makes it more likely that efforts to boost investor confidence will fail and foreign capital outflows will continue, potentially leading to covert controls on international capital to maintain the stability of yuan,” the report said.
* “A breach of trust can further undermine confidence in governance and development.” Today’s growing “trust deficit” is changing the dynamics among China’s political elites, between the state and society, between central and local governments and among the population at large, it said the report.
* A slowing economy will fuel public discontent. “The combination of slowing economic growth and erosion of confidence could intensify public discontent and even spark new protests in 2024,” the report said.
* The research group sees the purges in China’s provinces as worsening fiscal challenges combined with growing central-versus-local mistrust, leading to “increased control over local finances and leaders. This is helping to trigger a wave of political and anti-corruption purges in the provinces, especially in poorer regions – leading to new levels of political turmoil and political stagnation,” the report said.
* Si will adopt a “more oracular” style of leadership. Xi’s approach to governance “shows signs of an increasing shift toward ‘delegated centralization,'” in which he delegates day-to-day decision-making to trusted aides while focusing on grand strategy, the report said. “This may further secure Xi’s image and power, but it will also increase policy fragmentation, heighten tensions between security and development priorities, and reduce the effectiveness of international diplomacy.”
*China to make climate resilience a security priority “China is set to make climate adaptation and resilience efforts a top priority in 2024,” the report predicted.
Asian Society
* “China will act to restore its international climate leadership.” That could include spending more in developing countries and slowing or phasing out new coal-fired power plants in the country, the China Analysis Center predicted.
* “China will significantly strengthen its orientation to the Global South.” Motivated by deteriorating relations with the advanced Western world and the need to secure greater access to raw materials; developing new markets; gain political support; and strengthen its diplomatic, security and economic influence on the world stage, China will increasingly turn its attention to building relations with countries in the developing world. This will mean additional development aid, high-profile diplomatic extravaganzas and a greater operational presence of China’s military and police forces, the report said.
* Two major choices will complicate China’s foreign policy. The election this month of Vice President Lai Ching-te of the more independence-oriented Democratic Progressive Party as president of Taiwan “poses a significant early political and policy challenge for Xi in 2024.” Beijing is likely to continue to freeze political ties with Taiwan and put military pressure on the island, the report predicted.
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