WASHINGTON, Dec 12 (Reuters) – The looming election rematch next year between U.S. President Joe Biden and his predecessor Donald Trump will be fierce, a new Reuters/Ipsos poll has found, with both candidates saddled with deep vulnerabilities that could cost them White House.
Biden, an 81-year-old Democrat, continues to be plagued by voters’ doubts about the strength of the economy, as well as concerns about security at the U.S.-Mexico border and worries about crime.
Former Republican President Trump, 77, faces his own concerns, including four criminal trials on multiple charges related to his attempts to overturn the 2020 presidential election and his handling of classified documents. A conviction before the Nov. 5, 2024, election could cost him significant support, the survey found.
The poll showed Trump holding a narrow 2-point lead in a head-to-head matchup, 38% to 36%, with 26% of respondents saying they weren’t sure or might vote for someone else.
The poll, conducted online Dec. 5-11, included 4,411 American adults nationwide and has a confidence interval, a measure of accuracy, of about 2 percentage points.
Trump is the favorite for the Republican nomination by a wide margin, the poll shows.
Overall, the poll showed deep apathy among many voters toward a potential Biden-Trump rematch. About six in ten respondents say they are dissatisfied with America’s two-party system and want a third choice.
RFK JR FACTOR
They may have one in anti-vaccine activist Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who is launching an independent bid. The poll showed that Kennedy, part of a legendary political family, could get more support from Biden than from Trump.
Trump’s lead increased to 5 points when respondents were given the option to vote for Kennedy.
About 16 percent of those polled chose Kennedy when given the chance, while Trump had 36 percent support compared to 31 percent for Biden.
Kennedy, whose uncle John F. Kennedy was president and whose father Robert was a senator and attorney general, faces the challenge of gathering enough signatures to get on the ballot in all 50 states. Last week, a fundraising super PAC supporting Kennedy’s candidacy said it would spend up to $15 million to get Kennedy on the ballot in 10 states as an initial measure.
Third-party candidates influenced the outcome of the US election, even without winning. In 1992, Ross Perot’s strong showing helped put Democrat Bill Clinton in the White House, and in 2000, some Democrats blamed Ralph Nader’s candidacy for contributing to Al Gore’s loss to Republican George W. Bush.
The state-by-state Electoral College system used to elect presidents and deep-seated party divisions mean that voters in only a handful of states will play a decisive role in the election’s outcome.
In the seven states where the election was closest in 2020 — Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina and Michigan — Biden had a 4-point lead among Americans who said they were certain to vote.
Other polls show some voters are concerned about Biden’s advanced age. He would be the oldest president ever elected to a second term.
But his candidacy is likely to be buoyed by continued public support for abortion rights, as well as his advocacy for gun control, climate change measures and higher taxes on the ultra-rich, the new poll found.
The study also highlights significant risks for Trump’s campaign as he faces a series of criminal trials next year. About 31 percent of Republicans polled said they would not vote for Trump if he were convicted of a felony by a jury. He denied any wrongdoing.
About 45% of those polled said Trump was the better candidate to handle the economy, compared to 33% who chose Biden.
However, Biden had a similar advantage on the abortion issue, with 44 percent of those polled saying he was the better candidate for abortion access, compared to 29 percent who chose Trump.
Part of Trump’s strength also appears to be tied to some voters’ concerns about crime and immigration. Asked which candidate was better on the issues, 42 percent chose Trump on crime, compared to 32 percent who chose Biden.
Fifty-four percent of those polled agreed with the statement that “immigration makes life harder for native-born Americans,” with a similar share saying Trump is the better candidate on the issue.
Reporting by Jason Lang and James Oliphant; Editing by Scott Malone and Rosalba O’Brien
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