When the NIAA Realignment Committee enacted its most radical changes to the high school football league before the season began, the primary goal was to create a more competitive state playoff game.
But one additional hope was that the regular season would include more in-depth competition.
The large class was split from one division into three, including 5A-I (South only), 5A-II (North and South) and 5A-III (North and South). Those changes included three 3A teams (Hug, Wooster, North Valleys) also moving to the large class division as the second tier of Northern Nevada prep football was changed.
“It’s probably one of the better options,” North Valleys coach Brad Rose said of the preseason changes. “I feel like this is probably the most competitive lineup I’ve ever seen. It’s just going to create a lot of chances for some close games this year, and I think you’re going to see every Friday night that there’s going to be some really close results in 5A-II, 5A-III and 3A. It’s just going to be very good football.”
With the regular season over and the preseason playoffs starting Thursday night, have the changes resulted in closer games? I looked at every regular season game played by a 5A and 3A team over the past two seasons to find out, comparing the margin of victory at each level in 2022 and 2023. I included every game between 5A teams in 2022 (regardless whether it is saliva or not); between 3A teams in 2022 (whether league or not); and between 5A-II, 5A-III and 3A teams in the league in 2023. Here are the results.
2022 regular season
5A Average Margin of Victory: 24.02 points
3A Average Margin of Victory: 25.82 points
2023 regular season
5A-II Average Margin of Victory: 21.53 points
5A-III Average Margin of Victory: 23.93 points
3A Average Margin of Victory: 26.68 points
What do these results tell us? The games in 5A were a little closer, but not by much. And the games in 3A were even more lopsided.
Let’s start with 5A. Under the previous system in 2022, the average 5A game was decided by 24 points per game. Under the current system in 2023, the average 5A game was decided by 22.7 points per game (21.53 in 5A-II; 23.93 in 5A-III). That’s a 1.3-point tightening, roughly 5 percent closer than the year before, but still mostly blowouts. Bishop Manogue, Northern Nevada’s only private school in 5A or 3A football, won its league games this season by an average of 34 points; last year this number was 31.3 points. The average margin of victory in Reed’s games was 28.2 points. The lowest average margin of victory this season for a 5A-II team was Spanish Springs at 12 points per game. Every other team was over 16. At the 5A-III level, Douglas won its average game by 36.4 points. Each team’s average score per game was at least 15 points.
In 3A, the average margin of victory moved from 25.8 to 26.7 points per game, an increase of 0.9 points. South Tahoe had the highest scoring margin per game at 37.4 points; Sparks was second with 29.9; and Truckee was third with 28.1 points. Only Fearnley, whose average points differential per game was 17.1, had a total of less than 22 points per game.
This is only one year’s worth of data, but there is no noticeable improvement in creating closer games than the league’s regular season. In 5A-II, only four of the 30 league games were decided by single digits, including three games featuring Spanish Springs (a two-point win over Reno; a six-point win over McQueen; and a six-point win over Reed) . In 5A-II, only four of the 30 league games were decided by single digits, with only two decided by seven or fewer (North Valleys had two one-point games). We’ll see if the realignment creates more exciting state championship games. The North almost has to no longer contend with Bishop Gorman, which only plays in the 5A-I South. But the regular season was still Blowout City.
Sports columnist Chris Murray provides insight into Northern Nevada sports. Contact him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter @ByChrisMurray.
