We’re down to our final college football games and the final week of the NFL regular season. We thought about replacing John Greenberg and Zach Jackson as the NFL quarterbacks who have already made the playoffs, but they asked to end the streak. Also, their records aren’t quite playoff worthy. All odds from BetMGM.
GREENBURG (5-4 last week, 56-59-2 overall): I’m writing this in a hotel bar in Miami, so forgive the Paloma-related errors.
I fell asleep around halftime of the Washington game in a hotel room with my family (lost too much this year to afford two rooms), woke up and the damn game was on!
The national championship should keep me going. Michael Penix Jr. can really do it, can’t he? My wife, a so-called Indiana fan who last went to a game since her freshman year (I won’t tell you who was at that game because that would give away her age), is still salty about his transfer.
I’m betting on Michigan vs. Ohio State and Alabama. Have I learned my lesson? no! Washington +4.5 about me.
JACKSON (4-4 last week, 46-55): I got that right, too, and I’d like to be right again. I love Washington and with a healthy Penix, this offense is a joy to watch. But I worry about Washington’s defense and I just think Michigan is really solid.
It’s not spectacular. He’s not pushy. No more than a flashy scam, but just really solid and strong in many areas. This is his only chance to win a national title and I think Jim Harbaugh and Blake Corum will do it.
Before I even look at the game total or any props, I believe Washington can score. I think it could be fun, with lots of results. Penix could easily get 350, and Rome Odunze (95.5 at BetMGM) and Jalen McMillan (66.5) could get their receiving yardage overs. McMillan was +145 to score against Texas, and the neighbors thought I was pretty smart.
I’m just thinking Michigan winsI think too Corum rushing yards (101.5) and potentially 2 or more touchdowns feel like good bets. McMillan over 66.5 is my best bet in this game and you could potentially bet on it by falling asleep before it’s over.
GREENBERG: How about the other big game: South Dakota State -13.5 over Montana? The Grizzlies gained some players during their playoff run, but what does that say about their chances against the defending champions? I want to get Montana, but I think I’ll fade and get it Rabbits -13.5.
How about the NFL this week? For some teams, it’s like handicapping preseason games to find out how good these backup quarterbacks are. What exactly is Jeff Driskel’s QBR?
I’ve been telling people to bet the bears and that won’t change. I think they win at Lambeau Field for the first time since picky eater Jay Cutler missed a turkey leg on national television, but you just have to get them +3.
I’ve been covering the Bears since 2009 and have never seen them win there as I missed both times it happened. So, for one thing, I’ll be there on Sunday, which doesn’t bode well for them. Still, I like the way the Bears are playing, and I think they’re not only motivated to upset Green Bay’s season, but to prove to the higher-ups that this is a team worth investing in. I’m not saying they’re playing for Justin Fields, because we tend to overdramatize the inspiration of professional athletes, but I think there’s some pride here. Plus, the Bears secondary has been chasing QBs lately, so that should help tilt the odds in their favor.
My other picks: Patriots -1.5 against the Jets in what could be Bill Belichick’s farewell to Foxborough, possibly the fraudulent Dolphins +3 (buy half a point) against the bills and Steelers -3 (buy a half point) against the Ravens without Lamar.
JACKSON: I’m probably more likely to find something I feel strongly about in an actual preseason game than some of these messes. Tread lightly, everyone.
I think the playoff winning Browns just want to get back on the airport bus and I’d be tempted to take the Titans plus a little more than a field goal, but I probably have some scars from chasing these season finales in the past and seeing what I perceived as an ending, turned into an explosion. I have a friend who says, “Most of these teams in must-win games are there because they haven’t won enough before, so be careful.” I have another friend who says, “Just bet every game, the worst you can to happen is to lose.”
If you’re going to play this game, you can’t just stick to one philosophy.
The FCS title game during Sunday’s NFL games ranks right next to the FBS title game on Monday night. It’s about time the Super Bowl moved to Saturday and the college title game moved to Friday, but people only ask me questions about MACtion and Massillon. I just don’t get it.
In the NFL, my picks for Saturday are Steelers-Ravens under 34.5 and Houston ML. On Sunday I feel semi-strong Browns-Bengals under 37.5, Browns team total under and Buffalo Money Line. It leans toward Tennessee and underdogs at Broncos-Raiders, but it just leans. This just isn’t the week.
Come back Monday night for Michigan tight end Colston Loveland’s props. He was a monster against Ohio State, but not so much against Alabama. Washington just gave up big numbers late last week, and Loveland is more than capable. I like his prop (yards over, to score a TD) as much as I like Macmillan. And if I’m right about it being a high-scoring game, I can be right about all of them.
Just don’t waste all your money on Sunday trying to get there.
(Michael Penix Jr. and Rome Odunze photo: Steph Chambers/Getty Images)
