Originally appeared on NBC Sports Boston where the Patriots stand on the #3 trade pick as the draft decision looms
What would it take for the Patriots to trade up from the No. 3 pick and land one of the top three quarterbacks in the 2024 NFL Draft?
Big, big booty. Massive. Historical.
Foxboro’s view is that the package needs to be bigger than what San Francisco collected in 2021 to move up from No. 12 to No. 3 in its trade with Miami. In that deal, the 49ers sent the No. 12 pick, a 2022 third-rounder and first-round picks in 2022 and 2023 to Miami for the privilege of selecting Trey Lance.
Where do the Patriots want more from? Well, the 2021 quarterback class was a lot more suspect than that. As noted, the Niners took Lance, who played at North Dakota State and had one year of FCS football under his belt. Zach Wilson, kept from a limited schedule at BYU thanks to COVID, was the No. 2 pick.
The group of three who could be on the board at No. 3 this year — Jaden Daniels , Drake Maye and JJ McCarthy — includes a Heisman Trophy winner, a national championship winner and a guy (Maye) who fills out the franchise quarterback suit nicely .
There are none ZERO questions for the children above. But they are much less than three years ago.
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But getting New England to pass on a QB pick at No. 3 when their depth chart is filled with Jacoby Brissett, Bailey Zappé and Nathan Rourke would be taking an offer New England can’t refuse. You’ll convince the team to make the move, landing (supposedly) a can’t-miss prospect at the most important position in professional sports. At a time when interest in the team is at a 31-year low.
Four first-rounders in the next three seasons? With that, you can take wide outs, offensive shots into another corner, maybe a man advantage. Or with that kind of currency, you could buy your way into the top five next year or so.
Playing the long game is definitely appealing. But delayed gratification isn’t something the world cares much about in 2024. And there’s a chance the long game ends with them forever regretting betraying Maye as he elevates the Lombardis.
But that’s why the Patriots are paying Elliot Wolf the big bucks to make those decisions as GM.
What is this? Not a GM yet? De facto GM? Are you making the biggest decisions for the franchise in 30 years? OK. Noted. A sip.
Who’s thirsty enough to do the Godfather’s bidding? The most likely candidate is Minnesota (as we discussed). They have the 11th and 23rd overall picks and need a replacement for Kirk Cousins ASAFP, especially since they currently have Sam Darnold (cautionary tale as #3 pick in 2018) at QB on a team with elite wide receiver Justin Jefferson.
In addition to Minny, the Broncos (No. 12 pick), Raiders (No. 13) and Giants (No. 6) are QB-needy teams that could show interest in making an appearance.
The Patriots hosted Maye for a visit on Friday. Daniels is this week and McCarthy next week, according to Sports Illustrated’s Albert Breer. So New England will come out of next week having imagined what the next four years (at least) will look like when they all play offense.
And unless one of those three throws up on their shoes (unlikely given the polish and/or track record of each), the outlook is likely to be positive.
Combine that with their potential levels and the Patriots’ need for the spot, you can see why it would take a lot to move them from their spot.
But we’re more than two weeks away from tipping New England. And the signals from Minnesota continue to come through loud and clear that they’re going to land someone, as evidenced by former Vikings general manager Rick Spielman’s statement that his former team “will” overpay to draft JJ McCarthy.
“They will have to give [picks 11 and 23] and their first 2025, plus some more available capital,” Spielman said. “I think JJ will be a good pro, but Minnesota will pay too much to get him. At this point, they have no choice.”
Arizona, picking after the Patriots at No. 4, is generally seen as the most likely trade partner for quarterback-needy teams, as the Bears, Commanders and Patriots are all expected to land a quarterback.
But here’s where the Patriots can play poker.
If the Vikings are fine with Daniels, May or McCarthy (assuming Caleb Williams goes No. 1 to Chicago), there’s no reason to go No. 3. Just trade the Cardinals, who have Kyler Murray in their place.
But if Minney specifically wants McCarthy, the Patriots can shake it up that they’ll take him, not May (or Daniels, if Washington rejects him).
Or, with multiple teams in the market for a quarterback, the Patriots could trade up from No. 3 to, say, Denver, then — after clearing the Broncos — trade back up to No. 4 by making a deal with Arizona and passing Minnesota , to take the last quarterback.
Amidst this is the constant stream of doubt cast upon Maye.
Analyst Merril Hoge, a former player best known for his time on ESPN’s NFL Matchup, ripped Maye in a recent interview.
“Drake May is the player that will get you fired. Especially if you get him in the top five or top three, he’s going to sack you,” Hoge said. “I studied it for two years. … I watched every game of his last year. … His last game vs [North Carolina State] was perhaps the most embarrassing display I’ve ever seen from a guy who’s supposed to be an elite franchise quarterback. … He is fickle. He is everywhere.”
Hoge, who also tormented Caleb Williams in this year’s draft process, makes a good point. NC State’s late season game was horrific. And North Carolina went from a 6-0 start to a 7-4 final record with Maye at the controls.
Maye’s decline in 2023 was attributed to an offensive coordinator change, a suspect defense and a lack of luster. We’ve been told repeatedly to throw out Maye’s 2023 season and see how good he was in 2022. Which is a bit like asking people to throw out Mac Jones’ 2023 season and look at 2021. The fact is, both the count.
The other fact is that the stunning inability of GMs, scouts, coaches and analysts to draft players better than the Average Joe will never be funny to me.
Recharge yourself with this article from 2021 in which the merits of Zach Wilson over Trevor Lawrence are freely debated.
So it’s time for some sweaty palms. There are no sure things among defenders (even if they are better than usual). Also, there is no guarantee that the picks you collect if you trade down will turn into gold. Patriots juggle chainsaws.
If they do it perfectly, they will earn admiration. Less than perfect? It’s going to get messy.
