NFL Playoffs: Key matchups to watch in every NFC wild card game

Two of the NFC Super Wild Card Weekend games will be played in domes and the other in Florida, so we could see a lot more points than on the AFC side that will be affected by inclement weather. The Eagles are limping into the playoffs physically and psychologically, but they need to fix one huge problem if they want to beat the Buccaneers. The Cowboys are nearly impossible to beat at home, but they have an Achilles heel that the young Packers can exploit. The Lions’ offense is explosive, but their defense provides plenty of explosives. Jared Goff and Matthew Stafford should combine for some fireworks.

Here’s a key matchup to watch in each of the NFC games:

Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8 p.m. ET Monday)

Key match: Pain vs blitz

Jalen Hurts’ struggles against the blitz reached a crescendo in the final week of the season against the Giants. Wink Martindale, in his final game as the Giants’ defensive coordinator, went out doing what he loves best: blasting a quarterback into oblivion. Hurts completed 5 of 12 passes for 41 yards against the blitz in Week 18. He was sacked once and intercepted once. On the season, Hurts ranks 21st in the EPA in passing yards against the blitz among quarterbacks with at least 200 pass attempts, and he plays behind arguably the best offensive line in football.

However, it’s not all Hurts. This offensive scheme has been disjointed all season and there have been miscommunications on defense. There also don’t appear to be enough hot routes or vision adjustments built into the offense to help Hurts handle the blitz.

8:49 left in the second quarter, third and 6

On third-and-6, the Giants lined up on a drive, with both defenders robbed on the B-passes. The offensive line shifted to the offensive right (left of image), which meant that the left guard, left tackle and running back were responsible for the three defenders on their side. As Hearts snapped the ball, safety Dane Belton crept to the line of scrimmage. Hurts was responsible for the fourth rusher, which meant he had to get rid of the ball before Belton got to him.

Either AJ Brown had a quick slant or adjusted his route because he saw a blitz. Hurts didn’t see the blitz for the safety, he wasn’t on the same page as Brown and continued to drop. Hurts would ideally see the blitz coming, take a quick shot and hit Brown on a slant with just the right timing.

But his focus was on the middle of the field, and as Hurts reached the final step of his fall, Belton got to him for the sack.

Enter Todd Bowles and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

The Buccaneers rank third in blitz rush and Bowles is feeling blood in the water, Hurts is dealing with a finger injury and Brown’s status is uncertain as he left Week 18 with a knee injury. How Hurts and the Eagles handle the blitz will determine this game. Center Jason Kelce needs to be on top of his game, sniffing out pressure and adjusting defenses, and Hurts and the receivers need to do their part by completing hot routes and target adjustments. Offensive coordinator Brian Johnson can help with timely screens. The great tying goal may be the Eagles’ play, but it won’t be easy against a Buccaneers defense that ranks fifth in defensive EPA per shot.

Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys (4:30 p.m. ET Sunday)

Key match: Johnathan Hankins, Osa Odigizuwa and Chauncey Golston against the Packers interior

The Cowboys’ defense ranks fifth in DVOA, and they’re especially good at home — allowing just 1.38 points per drive — where the young Packers will have to travel to play against them. The weakness of the Cowboys defense is their run defense downfield. They are light on the inside and their focus under defensive coordinator Dan Quinn is to go up top and disrupt, which is reflected in the stats. Their defensive success rate, which measures consistency down the stretch, ranks 29th in the league. But when they are stopped, they are impactful. They rank ninth in punt percentage stopped for no gain or negative yardage.

With running back Aaron Jones, who missed six games this season, back in the lineup, the Packers rushed for 463 yards (4.6 yards per carry) over the final three games of the season. Although Jordan Love has been fantastic in the second half of the season, consistent ball handling will be vital in Dallas. The Packers’ rushing attack should help take the pressure off Love, who is playing in his first playoff game on the road, and contain Dallas’ pass rush.

The Packers are second in the league in 12-man (one running back, two tight ends, two receivers) and 13-man (one running back, three tight ends, one receiver) offense. They will go into their multiple tight end sets and test Dallas’ front. Although they are an outside zone team, many of their runs will cut into the teeth of defenses. How much of a push the interior of the Packers’ line of Elgton Jenkins, Josh Meyers and Jon Runyan can get consistently could determine this game.

Los Angeles Rams at Detroit Lions (8 p.m. ET Sunday)

Key match: Kupp against the Lions’ zone defense

Lions defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn tends to play a lot of zone against teams with multiple receiving threats. In two games against the Vikings, who run a similar scheme to the Rams, the Lions played zone on a 76.9 percent drop rate. Glenn traditionally plays a lot of man coverage, but I think he realizes he doesn’t have the personnel to do it against teams like the Rams. Cooper Kupp is as good as any receiver at finding holes to exploit against zone coverage.

4:28 left in the first quarter, second and 15

Kupp had a shallow interception on this play against the Seahawks’ zone coverage.

Koop appeared to have clear access across the field, but the safety swung down from the roof to cover the “strong hook” area. A less experienced receiver could have gone on and taken a big hit. However, Kupp saw the rotation and cut his route into the zone hole.

Stafford was on the same page and threw the ball into a spot that allowed Coop to turn from the safety spin and run after the catch.

The chemistry between Kupp and Stafford should be a huge factor in this matchup. Vikings quarterback Nick Mullens has averaged over 400 yards in two games against the Lions’ second baseman. I’d expect Stafford and the Rams to put up similar numbers in a fun, good old-fashioned shootout.

(Top photo of Jalen Hurts by Cooper Neill/Getty Images; Cooper Kupp by Michael Owens/Getty Images; Osa Odighizuwa by Brandon Sloter/Getty Images)

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