The World Tourism Barometer reported nearly 1.3 billion tourists last year, a 34 percent increase from 2022. Tourism export earnings rose to an estimated US$1.6 trillion, down just 5 percent from 2019, after as they collapsed in 2020. But behind these numbers was a more volatile picture.
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Tourists have largely welcomed the ban on visitors entering the historic geisha district
Tourists have largely welcomed the ban on visitors entering the historic geisha district
International arrivals in Europe last year were just 6 percent less than the peak in 2019. And since they represent 54 percent of the global total of nearly 1.29 million (France remains the world’s most popular destination), the recovery of Europe greatly skewed the numbers.
Asia welcomed just 233 million international tourists last year, still 35% below 2019. Travelers to Northeast Asia (including China, South Korea and Japan) were still down 45% from 2019, and for Southeast Asia, with nearly 30 percent.
The UN tourism forecast for a full recovery this year includes a significant caveat: it “depends on the pace of recovery in Asia and the development of existing economic and geopolitical challenges.” It adds that “tourists are expected to increasingly look for value for money and travel closer to home in response to increased prices and general economic challenges.”
And when they say Asia, they mean China in particular, which is in the midst of the “economic and geopolitical challenges” they’re talking about. According to China’s National Immigration Administration, international visitors jumped sevenfold from 2022 to 35.5 million last year, after the lifting of Covid restrictions, but remain just a third of 2019’s volume.
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The bridge in China is crowded with tourists during the Lunar New Year
The bridge in China is crowded with tourists during the Lunar New Year
According to a recent EIU report, mainlanders made 101 million “cross-border trips” last year – down from 168 million in 2019. Of that 101 million, 77 million trips were to Hong Kong, Macau or Taiwan, with only 23.9 million are further – about 36 percent of 2019 levels.
How quickly Chinese tourists will regain their position as the world’s largest group of top spenders depends on a number of factors.
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Thailand rolls out the red carpet for visa-free Chinese tourists
Thailand rolls out the red carpet for visa-free Chinese tourists
Despite the challenges, the potential for travelers from the continent to flood global tourism markets remains significant.
Can Thailand turn Chinese fans of T-wave stars into tourists?
Can Thailand turn Chinese fans of T-wave stars into tourists?
Estimates made in 2020 predicted that the pandemic would take over US$4 trillion from the global economy and destroy over 60 million jobs. No recent publicly available estimates have clarified or confirmed these estimates, but for many whose livelihoods depend on the travel and tourism sector, this kind of recovery cannot come soon enough – especially in Asia, where we still have a long way to go.
David Dodwell is CEO of trade policy and international relations consultancy Strategic Access, focused on the development and challenges of the Asia-Pacific region over the past four decades
