VOORHEES, NJ – The final game of the regular season will mean a lot to the Flyers.
But other games also matter if the rebuilding Flyers want to make the playoffs.
The Flyers host the Capitals on Tuesday in the regular-season finale for each club (7 p.m. ET/NBCSP). Two days ago, on a busy Saturday in the competition, the Flyers learned they couldn’t finish third in the Metropolitan Division.
The Islanders are in third place and according to MoneyPuck.com have a 90 percent chance to knock off the Capitals and Penguins and finish there.
That leaves the Flyers battling three other teams for the second and final wild card spot in the Eastern Conference. Those three teams – the Capitals, Red Wings and Penguins – all play Monday night to catch up to the Flyers in games played.
The Flyers, Capitals and Red Wings all have 87 points, while the Penguins have 86.
The Flyers enter Monday with an 18 percent chance to make the playoffs, according to MoneyPuck.com, and a 3.5 percent chance, according to Hockey-Reference.com.
Let’s first look at the schedule for the next three days for all four teams:
Monday
WSH Vs. BOS — 7:00 p.m
DET Vs. MTL – 7:00 PM ET
PIT vs. NSH — 7 p.m. ET
Tuesday
PHI Vs. WSH – 7 p.m. ET
DET at MTL – 7:00 PM ET
Wednesday
PIT at NYI — 7 p.m. ET
This is some kind of Flyers viewing board.
“There are so many different scenarios and we still have games to play tonight,” head coach John Tortorella said Monday after practice. “People will let me know what’s going on. I won’t be there on my phone. What happens, happens. I know how we prepare for our game, so there’s no point getting too hung up on the other stuff, we’ve got to take care of our stuff.”
There is no scenario where the Flyers lose on Tuesday and still make the playoffs. They have to win and get help. With that said, here’s what the Flyers need from each team to earn the second wild card spot.
Lots of Flyers-Capitals tiebreakers to decide
Even if Washington wins tonight, the Flyers can still get past the Capitals. Both teams are tied in three tiebreakers — wins in regulation (30), wins in regulation/overtime (34) and overall wins (38).
If Washington beats Boston in regulation, the Flyers will have to beat the Capitals in regulation. If Washington beats Boston in overtime or shootouts, the Flyers will be fine if they beat the Capitals in regulation or overtime.
Because the final tiebreaker for the Flyers and Capitals could come down to more points in the regular season series or goal difference for the entire regular season. The Flyers and Capitals split their first two meetings. The Flyers won in a shootout, so they have two points compared to Washington’s three.
If the Flyers beat the Capitals in regulation, making the two teams tied for points in the head-to-head series, the Flyers should finish with the better goal differential. The Flyers enter Monday at minus-25 and the Capitals minus-40.
If Washington wins one or no points tonight, the Flyers can beat the Capitals either way and finish ahead of them.
The Red Wings have to lose at least once
Even if the Flyers win Tuesday, they can’t make the playoffs if Detroit wins its last two games over the Canadiens or picks up three points. The Red Wings, if they go 2-0-0 or 1-0-1, would eliminate the Flyers.
If Detroit takes just two points in its last two games (one win or two regulation losses), the Flyers will hold the tiebreaker for regulation wins.
The Penguins could have two tiebreakers over the Flyers
Even if the Flyers win Tuesday, they can’t make the playoffs if Pittsburgh wins its last two games or takes three points via a regular-time win or overtime and a regular-time loss.
In a scenario where the Penguins earn three points via a regulation or overtime win and a regulation loss, they would own the tiebreaker over the Flyers in regulation wins and regulation/overtime wins.
If Pittsburgh were to pick up three points via a shootout win and a regulation loss, the Flyers would have to beat the Capitals in regulation to win the tiebreaker over the Penguins. Both teams would be tied for regular time wins and regular time/overtime wins. The next tiebreaker would be an overall win and the Flyers would have one more.
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