Washington vs. Michigan national title game predictions, odds: Wolverines favored in Houston

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The last two undefeated teams in college football will square off for the ultimate prize when Washington and Michigan meet Monday night in Houston for the national title. The top-ranked Wolverines are favored to claim their first national championship in nearly 30 years, but the Huskies have thrived as an underdog this season.

The College Football Playoff National Championship will begin at 7:30 PM ET on January 8th from NRG Stadium. ESPN will handle the broadcast with additional coverage of the game distributed across the network’s platforms.

After disappointing playoff performances the previous two seasons, Jim Harbaugh has Michigan (14-0) on the verge of winning a national title. The Wolverines fought their way through an undefeated regular season that wasn’t without its ups and downs or controversy. Harbaugh served two separate suspensions for recruiting violations and allegations of sign theft, but his team continued to take care of business on the field, winning a third straight Big Ten title and earning the No. 1 seed in the playoffs.

Washington (14-0) relied on its high-powered offense to post impressive victories while navigating a challenging Pac-12 slate. The Huskies were the only team to beat Oregon, and did so twice, the second time coming in the Pac-12 Championship Game to secure a spot behind Michigan in the final playoff seeding.

Michigan’s formula for success — a suffocating defense paired with a punishing running game — was on full display in the semifinal against Alabama. The Wolverines harassed Crimson Tide quarterback Jalen Milroe throughout the game, sacking him six times and limiting him to five yards per pass attempt. They gave up a season-high 172 rushing yards and a pair of touchdowns, but Alabama needed 43 carries to get there.

The defensive resilience helped the team overcome some uncharacteristically sloppy plays early and keep things close before the offense scored late to send the game into overtime. From there, running back Blake Corum needed just two carries to give his team the lead and then one last defensive stop sealed the landmark 27-20 victory.

Michigan’s defense will have to come up big once again Monday night against Washington, especially if coach Kallen DeBoer and quarterback Michael Penix Jr. continue their successful partnership. Penix showed Texas why he was a Heisman Trophy finalist this season. He lit up Texas with 430 yards passing and a pair of touchdowns as the Huskies outlasted the favored Longhorns in a 37-31 thriller. Washington’s defense gave up 498 total yards, but forced two turnovers and held Texas out of the end zone when it counted most, on the final play of the game.

That bend-but-don’t-break approach might not be as successful against Michigan, however. Not only do the Wolverines offer a much stiffer defensive challenge for Penix and company, but Michigan’s productive running game is a tough matchup for any defense to stop. Blake Corum is a two-time All-American and leads the nation with 25 rushing touchdowns.

Getting some stop behind the line of scrimmage will be critical for the Huskies. Two-time first-team All-Pac-12 selection Bralen Trice had two sacks and three tackles for loss in the semifinal and will need to make his presence felt once again. That may be easier said than done against a Michigan offense that doesn’t give up many sacks (19 in 14 games) or turn the ball over a lot (eight total).

The flip side of this matchup is that Michigan’s defense has yet to face an offense like Washington’s. Yes, the Wolverines held Ohio State to 24 points, but the Buckeye offense this season was not typical of the Ryan Day era, certainly not statistically. Pennix is ​​the nation’s leading passer with 4,648 yards, 35 touchdowns and just nine interceptions.

Michigan’s defense is No. 2 against the pass (152.6 yards per game) in the country. Ohio State was the only opponent to throw more than one touchdown pass against the Wolverines. Meanwhile, Penix has 11 multi-goal games.

Michigan’s aforementioned pass rush will no doubt play a huge role, but Washington’s offensive line has done an outstanding job giving Penix the time he needs to find his targets downfield, and he’s also quick to get rid of the ball. Despite averaging more than 37 pass attempts per game, the Huskies have surrendered a total of 11 sacks in 14 contests.

And outside of the Buckeyes, the Wolverines haven’t faced a receiving corps as gifted and talented as Washington’s. It starts with Rome Odunze, a consensus All-American and projected first-round pick in the NFL Draft. He and fellow tight end Ja’Lynn Polk combined for 152 catches, 2,675 yards and 22 touchdowns. That’s 575 yards and 15 more points than Michigan’s defense has allowed through the air all season. And don’t forget about Jalen McMillan, who was hampered by injuries but led the team with nine touchdown catches in 2022.

Washington could do without leading rusher Dylan Johnson. Johnson went down on Washington’s final offensive play and was carted off the field. He has 1,162 yards rushing and 16 touchdowns this season. Losing him would be a blow to Washington’s offense, but he is expected to play for now.

All odds from BetMGM. Looking for college football tickets? Find them here.

What is the spread for Michigan vs. Washington?

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Model projection

Austin Mock College Football favors Michigan by 5.5 points and projects the point total to be 55.5 points. That puts the projected score at Michigan 30.5, Washington 25.

Pre-game reading

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Michigan vs. Washington Coaches Confidential: Opposing Coaches’ Thoughts on the Title Game

Washington spent a season of doom in a dance with disaster, but the Huskies remain undeterred

Mandel: It’s hero-villain Michigan vs. a resurgent Washington in the championship game

Washington-Michigan CFP Championship First Look: A look at a fascinating battle on the field

Michael Penix Jr. pushed Washington to the CFP, but saved his best for when he got there

Michigan answers doubters with program-defining win: ‘We did the unthinkable’

(JJ McCarthy and Tyler Morris Photo: Ryan Kang/Getty Images)

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