A team from the Southeastern Conference has won the national championship 13 of the last 17 years, including four in a row. The list includes five different schools: Alabama (6 times), Auburn, Georgia (2), Florida (2) and LSU (2).
From the BCS to the College Football Playoff, the league is dominant. In three cases, both teams in the title game came from the SEC.
In other words, you can’t have a playoff without at least one SEC team.
Can you?
Well, college football’s final season with a four-team playoff — a 12-team expansion will take effect in 2024 — could create just the kind of chaos to do the unthinkable.
Currently, two SEC teams are still in reasonable contention for a playoff spot — No. 1 Georgia and No. 8 Alabama. They play each other Saturday in Atlanta for the SEC championship.
If Georgia wins, it’s obviously in. The Bulldogs have won the title in each of the last two seasons and are riding a 29-game winning streak.
But what if Alabama upsets them?
That would leave 12-1 Georgia and 12-1 Alabama to be the official SEC champion.
If the Tide beat the Dawgs, the scenario that could doom the mighty SEC is this:
Michigan defeated Iowa for the Big Ten title.
Washington defeats Oregon for Pac-12 title.
Florida State defeats Louisville for the ACC title.
Texas defeats Oklahoma State for the Big 12 title.
(Only Washington is considered an underdog.)
Michigan and Washington would participate, leaving two spots for four teams – 13-0 Florida State, 12-1 Texas, 12-1 Alabama and 12-1 Georgia.
Normally, FSU would be a shoo-in as the undefeated Power Five conference champion. However, the Seminoles lost star quarterback Jordan Travis to injury two weeks ago and needed a big comeback to beat a 5-7 Florida team on Saturday. If they barely beat Louisville, will the so-called “eye test” come and haunt FSU?
Perhaps. It’s hard to argue that a Travis-less Florida State team is “one of the top four teams in the country” as the playoffs are loaded to determine. However, it seems unattainable for the playoff committee to not allow an undefeated ACC champion. That would go against everything we’ve seen from the commission’s work over the past nine years. At some point, games have to matter.
So count FSU. We think.
That leaves the 12-1 Longhorns, who happened to beat Alabama 34-24 in Tuscaloosa in September. That should give UT the edge over the Crimson Tide – after all, a head-to-head matchup should matter.
And since Alabama is the one beating Georgia in this scenario, then the Hornets should have the edge over Georgia – we beat the team that beat you. Also, UT will be the conference champion (one of the criteria considered) and the Bulldogs will not.
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As far as resumes go, it’s not like SEC schools have anything to go by. Georgia will pick up wins over two 10-win teams in Missouri and Ole Miss, plus a top-25 club in Tennessee. But that’s all.
Alabama would go on to beat Georgia, Ole Miss and top 15 LSU.
Texas would have wins over Alabama and top-25 teams Oklahoma State and Kansas State. (The Hornets wish No. 13 Oklahoma had reached the Big 12 championship game, giving them a higher-ranked opponent and a chance to avenge a 34-30 October loss to the Sooners).
So how can the commission skew the SEC against Texas? Head-to-head isn’t the only factor, but it’s not like the SEC has been dominant this season. This is not the usual deep, talented operation.
The SEC’s best non-conference wins are: Mississippi State over Arizona, Missouri over Kansas State and Kentucky over Louisville. The ACC went 6-4 against the league.
There just isn’t much there.
Georgia and Alabama might be as good as anyone in the country — as long as Georgia doesn’t lose, it’s the favorite to win it all. But there is no turning back from the past. And as strange and illegitimate as the league outside of the playoffs may seem, reality awaits us.
In 2021, Georgia and Alabama met in the SEC title game. The Crimson Tide won, but both teams were seeded in a four-team field. Just over a month later, they met for the national title, with Georgia winning the title and a measure of revenge.
This was the SEC at its best, complete college football dominance.
Now…we might actually have a playoff without them.
