It’s UFC 300 on us!!!
Okay, this introduction might be a bit short too dramatic considering we weren’t exactly blessed with a rocking main event this Saturday. But 300 is still a serious number for the UFC to hit, and you can’t argue with the lineup. Is this the best, most hyped card in combat sports? Maybe not.
But you best believe it’s the deepest.
We don’t need to go over every champion, former champion, contender and fan favorite on this card. But if you can’t find at least four or five fights to love, then that’s your problem. Knockout king Alex Pereira vs. unflinchingly confident Jamahal Hill? Zhang Weili, the best female fighter in the world, facing another Chinese star Yang Xiaonan? Justin Getty and Max Holloway meet in a dream match to determine who is officially the baddest m************? Everything is spectacular.
That’s not even mentioning that former lightweight champion Charles Oliveira had to hold off young juggernaut Armand Tsarukian and can’t-miss prospect Bo Nickal opening one of the most anticipated pay-per-views ever.
What are you waiting? Let’s dive into the main card choices.
What: UFC 300
Where: T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas
When: Saturday, April 13. The card begins with a four-fight preliminary portion on ESPN and ESPN+ at 6:00 PM ET, with continued coverage of the four-fight preliminary card also on ESPN and ESPN+ beginning at 8:00 PM ET. The five-fight main card begins at 10:00 PM ET and is available exclusively on ESPN+ pay-per-view.
(Numbers in parentheses indicate entry MMA Fighting Global Rankings and Ranking pound for pound)
Alex Pereira (1, P4P-4) vs. Jamahl Hill (4)
It’s not Conor McGregor vs. anyone like some people wanted, but Alex Pereira vs. Jamahal Hill is a hell of a bad time to close out a card of this magnitude. You’ve got “Champion-Champion” against a champion who hasn’t lost his belt in the cage, a high probability of someone falling asleep, and a lot of bad blood dating back to Hill retiring Pereira’s master, so to speak. You can’t ask for much more than that.
Well, you can claim a 100 percent healthy Hill. Coming off an Achilles tear, Hill said all the right things about being fully recovered from the injury. He’s young and in fantastic shape, so it’s entirely possible that with the best medical care, he’ll be ready to be at his best on fight night. But after eating a couple of leg kicks from Pereira, we’ll all be wondering if he made a mistake in not delaying his comeback.
Even with Hill at his best, it’s a coin toss. Hill showed in the fight with Glover Teixeira that he can fight smart for five rounds and consulting with Israel Adesanya on how to deal with the “Poatan” jab can only help him. He can do a reasonable impression of what Adesanya did in his first UFC title fight against Pereira, and that might be enough for Hill to win it.
It’s that one-pop-stop ability that makes it so hard to go against Pereira, even knowing Hill has just as much potential to end this game early. I see Hill having success early, taking advantage of Pereira’s slow start before the champ caught him with a signature jab for the knockout win.
Select: Pereira
Zhang Weili (1, P4P-1) vs. Yan Xiaonan (3, P4P-10)
Zhang Weili and Yan Xiaonan, two Chinese UFC title contenders, are set to compete for the strawweight belt in their home country. But we have to settle for the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. alas
It’s a shame because I’m not sure how excited the crowd will be to see Zhang win a two-way fight over Yan, which comes after a brutal “BMF” fight and precedes the final fight of the night. As much fun as Jan is to watch, she’s still underappreciated by much of the fanbase, and that lack of recognition could rear its ugly head here.
It’s a shame because the champion is about to start work. On the feet, Zhang could face some risky moments, as Yan has some of the best stand-up in any of the UFC’s three women’s divisions. Jan has found a smart balance between being aggressive and finding the moment to land her stiff right hand. If there is to be an upset, it will be Yang who outclasses Zhang on the feet over the course of five rounds.
Jan’s fight is what tips the odds significantly in her favor. We saw what Carla Esparza did to Yang, and honestly, if Mackenzie Dern had a reliable takedown entry, she probably would have beaten Yang too. If Zhang takes Yang to the mat, she either punishes her en route to 10-8 or finds a finish. Jan is tough and she’s going to hang in there as long as she can, but that’s not going through the third.
Select: Jan
Justin Gaethje (3, P4P-T14) vs. Max Holloway (FW-3, P4P-T18)
How you view Max Holloway’s 2019 rematch with Dustin Poirier will tell you a lot about what you should expect to see when he makes his lightweight return against Justin Gaethje.
Positives: Holloway has the kind of striking production that has thwarted Gaethje in the past. The key to taking Gaethje down (assuming you’re not just Khabib Nurmagomedov) is to bother him from different angles to open up his defenses and press the advantage late. Holloway landed plenty of punches in his five-round classic with Poirier, and if he can repeat that against Gaethje, the door is open for a late finish or a decision win.
Negatives: Holloway gets hit a lot! This has been true throughout his career, which is inevitable when you’re regularly trading blows with the likes of Alexander Volkanovsky, Jose Aldo and Frankie Edgar. But he has often managed to overcome these situations. He relies heavily on his unwavering chin, which is not a sustainable strategy against Gaethje. I’m skeptical that Holloway’s defense is solid enough to avoid Gaethje’s heaviest punches and leg kicks.
Expect another classic to be added to both men’s catalogs, with Gaethje’s size and power being the difference on the scorecards.
Select: Gaethje
Charles Oliveira (2, P4P-6) vs. Arman Tsarukyan (4)
Arman Tsarukian is this close to getting his chance to prove that he is the man to lead the next generation of lightweights. He just doesn’t go through Charles Oliveira to do it.
“Do Bronx” has been the best lightweight in the world without the name Khabib or Islam for the past few years, so it’s no shame that Tsarukian lost to him. It’s a classic light punch on paper and Oliveira just doesn’t lose them. Do you want to outsmart him, do you want to outsmart him in technique? A fine. Do you want to get in there and go straight for it to make a name for yourself? Bad move, cool.
Tsarukyan is so far above the second tier of lightweights that it’s easy to see why he’ll be champion someday. But Oliveira is a significant step above anyone he’s beaten in the past. No one has fired it up like Oliveira can. I’m fascinated to see how this plays out, because despite my confidence in Oliveira, Tsarukian making the jump wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest. They both rule, I’m torn!
Sigh. Oliveira via submission.
Select: Oliveira
Bo Nickal vs. Cody Brundage
All signs point to a Bo Nickal performance.
However, you can’t completely rule out the possibility of a Cody Brundage upset. These are combat sports. Brundage also has the makings of a true underdog. You sense he is unfazed by the position he is put in and has a knack for pulling finishing shots out of nowhere. If Nickal was the type to take his opponents lightly, I’d be worried.
But one thing Nickal has shown in his short MMA career is respect for the craft, so you can bet he takes Brundage as seriously as any of the elite fighters he faced in college. It just so happens that Brundage’s base is grappling, but if he tries to shoot Nickal, he gets suplexed. That means at worst, Nichol will be forced to stand up, a scenario he’s more than comfortable with so far.
Nickal’s explosiveness will be too much for Brundage, who has a habit of letting his opponents set the tone. This plays right into Nickal’s hands as he will happily set a pace that leaves Brundage in the dust well before the end of Round 1.
Select: Nickel
Preliminary (check full previews here)
Jiri Prochazka defeated Aleksandar Rakic
Calvin Kattar defeated Aljamain Sterling
Holly Holm defeated Kayla Harrison
Diego Lopez defeated Sodic Yusuf
Renato Moicano defeated Jalin Turner
Marina Rodriguez defeated Jessica Andrade
Bobby Green defeated Jim Miller
Deiveson Figueiredo defeated Cody Garbrandt
