The Vegas Golden Knights haven’t been trailing long in games – a truly shocking finding for a team that not only won the Stanley Cup last season, but now leads the league with a 21-6-5 record.
So when they fell 2-1 to the Ottawa Senators on Sunday night, it wasn’t a stretch to think a comeback could happen. Vegas tends to pick up the offensive pace when trailing, which is why they trailed in just 23.6 percent of their five-on-five minutes. It didn’t take long for the Golden Knights to turn things around in the first period and then run away with the game.
When things don’t go the Senators’ way, it’s hard for them to get back on track. Not only do the Senators allow a lot of goals when they are down, which reduces their chances of a comeback, they are also not a high-level team. Ottawa isn’t generating a high percentage of quality looks to improve its comeback chances.
Which teams are the best at coming back into games or holding on to leads? What about the worst? Let’s take a closer look at how the teams are performing in the league by result status.
While everything minutes played are important when thinking about comeback ability or inability to hold a lead, it’s best to focus on the five-on-five game. There are too many variables to consider in timing for all situations, and power play opportunities (or short timing) can skew things.
No team spends more time tied than the New York Islanders, who are tied 42.5 percent of the time. The Winnipeg Jets and Montreal Canadiens aren’t far behind. The Carolina Hurricanes and Edmonton Oilers generate a lot of offense when tied, but the St. Louis Blues spend just a game-low 25.2 percent of the time with a goal difference of zero in games. Behind St. Louis, the Vancouver Canucks are second in efforts to break the tie with a goal.
Vancouver’s place here is not surprising given that it spends the most time as a punt leader at around 47 percent. The Canucks’ shot generation and scoring chances in those minutes aren’t eye-catching, but they have the results — the team is scoring at a 2.96 goals-per-60 rate, which ranks it sixth in the league. Is shooting 12.4 percent in those minutes sustainable? That’s the big question, so it would help Vancouver pick up the pace on offense to maintain that dominance on the scoreboard.
But it wasn’t just the offense that allowed Vancouver to hold a lead; The Canucks don’t allow too many shots against while ahead in games. And most importantly, their X-factor in net, Thatcher Demko, doesn’t let much get past him. The team is allowing a league-low 1.61 goals per 60 against while in games, which is a key reason why they have maintained the lead they have built and had such a solid start to the season.
Being stingy while going forward in games is something that works in the Los Angeles Kings’ favor as well, which is why they are second in percentage time behind the Canucks at five-on-five. Los Angeles, however, has a little more power behind its impressive 1.75 goals against 60 during that time. The goaltending, led by Cam Talbot, is a major factor. But the Kings are especially strong in front of the blue paint, allowing fewer shots and quality chances vs. for a league-low 2.16 expected goals against at 60.
The Kings’ strengths also extend across the ice; they rank in the top three in shot volume along with expected and actual goal generation. This is why they tend to jump out to the lead and stay ahead in games.
The Colorado Avalanche is another team that is thriving while leading the way with a top-five scoring rate. Colorado won games by multiple goals 15 times this season and outscored their opponents (by at least plus four goals) five times. Once this team has a lead, it usually doesn’t let it go – the Avalanche’s 1.61 goals against per 60 are tied with the Canucks for the lowest in the league.
Not every team is that strong on both ends while leading. Some teams have all the offense without the strength of the defense. Ottawa scores the most while leading the scoring, but isn’t as reliable in its own zone. Unlike Vancouver and Los Angeles, the Senators don’t spend nearly as much time up front in games and trail more than they lead.
The Toronto Maple Leafs, who rank just behind the Senators at 3.42 goals per 60 while leading at five-on-five, have struggled even more in their own end while ahead, ranking in the bottom fifth in both expected and by actual goals against them. That’s a key reason why they’re spending less than 31 percent of their minutes up front and helps explain why they’ve lost six games in which they’ve had a lead.
Toronto isn’t the worst team in its own zone when leading plays. That honor goes to the Columbus Blue Jackets, who have allowed a 3.96 expected goals against per 60. The Chicago Blackhawks and San Jose Sharks aren’t much better, but the Calgary Flames have the worst at 4.82 goals per 60. followed by the Anaheim Ducks and Blue Jackets. While Columbus surprisingly manages to hold the lead just under 34 percent of the time, Chicago, San Jose, Anaheim and Calgary all round out the bottom five.
Even worse, the Blackhawks, Sharks, and Flames don’t generate much offense while leading games, which amounts to a muddled defensive shell, and that’s why they often go from a lead to a deficit.
Chicago, which plays a league-leading 50.9 percent of its time from behind, struggles mightily in its own zone when the score is tied, and that continues even when they’re behind by goals. The Blackhawks don’t generate much offense to get out of those situations. The same is true for the Sharks – they turn away from scoring chances when they fall behind, allow the highest percentage of goals against and concede the fewest goals. That’s what made their two comebacks against the Islanders and Red Wings so shocking earlier this month, but those were very rare occurrences and not the norm for this team.
On the other side of the spectrum, teams like the Kings and Canucks, who are often in the lead, don’t spend much time losing games. Neither do the Golden Knights, who allow 1.17 goals against the league per 60 while trailing and tend to generate a high percentage of fouls. That’s why they’re one of the best comeback teams in the league. Technically #1 is the New York Rangers – they generate a good amount of five-on-five offense in these situations, but usually rely on power-play scoring to change their fortunes.
But there are a few standouts ahead of them: the Jets, Islanders and league-leading Bruins, who find themselves behind them just 17 percent of the time.
The Jets and Islanders do a good job of not going deep with goals against them while trailing. But the real standout is just how much they scored in those minutes; the Islanders lead the league with 4.16 goals per 60, with the Jets and Bruins second and third. The Jets won four games in which they trailed by two-plus goals thanks to that offensive boost when trailing.
The Islanders, on the other hand, have bounced back from six games in which they trailed by at least a goal. The strange thing, and what has made this team a little more erratic this season, is that they have also lost four games in which they had a multi-goal lead and nine games in which they had some kind of lead. Defending the lead has not been their forte this season, but this team wakes up when the pressure is on. Their last weekend exemplified these trends; they couldn’t hold a lead against the Bruins (who, yes, happen to be one of the best at scoring in these situations) and ended up losing in a shootout. They then fell to a 4-0 deficit against the Canadians the next night and almost made a comeback. Two of their three games before that, against the Ducks and Kings, were also comeback attempts.
Speaking of fickle teams: While the Maple Leafs give up a lot when they’re in the lead, they do a much better job of closing the door when they’re already behind to avoid sinking further down the stretch. The defense is solid compared to the rest of the league and they don’t allow many goals against. It’s not a one-dimensional effort, though—Toronto generated plenty of offense to spark a comeback and has the results to show for it.
Not every team is so lucky. The Oilers create a league-leading 3.63 expected goals when attempting a comeback. But unlike, say, the Kings, who are second in expected goal generation, Edmonton has no results. The Oilers fell short by about 13 goals below expectations, the worst margin of all 32 teams. As much as the Oilers have struggled defensively and in net this season, their inability to consistently capitalize on the scoring opportunities they created has come back to bite them. That’s something that separates the Oilers from their three division rivals.
— All data via Natural Stat Trick
(Top photos of Thatcher Demko and Connor Bedard: Derek Kane and Michael Reeves/Getty Images)
