Women’s Basketball Bracket Watch: Selection Sunday as at-large bids still on the table

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The last full day of conference tournaments has come and gone and wow, what a packed slate. We ended up getting away without any issues that would have put a potential at-large bid in question, but we did witness some great games and competition.

Kent State is making the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2002. California Baptist, in Year 6 as a Division I program, earned its first ticket to the Big Dance. Norfolk State matched last season’s win total and tied its DI program record with 26 wins this season after also punching its ticket to the tournament for the second year in a row. Fairfield won its 31st game of the season, outlasting Niagara in one of the most frantic games of the past few weeks to secure a trip to March Madness.

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In the most anticipated game of the day, Princeton won the Ivy League championship comfortably, possibly negating the possibility of the Ivy being a two-bid conference.

So on Selection Sunday, as we dive into our final bracket watch, a quick thank you for following along. There will be plenty of coverage of the tournament when the brackets are revealed (8 p.m. ET, ESPN) on the Selection Show. You can print a blank bracket here, but check back for a complete one once the tournament teams are revealed, as well as bracket analysis, predictions and our tournament breakdowns on The Athletic Women’s Basketball Show podcast.

Conferences with multiple candidates

Can Princeton make a tournament splash again?

I’ve included Princeton as a No. 8 seed (which would tie 2015 for its highest seed in program history), but there’s plenty of wiggle room in the middle for the committee to place the Tigers higher or lower seed line. Wins over Oklahoma and Middle Tennessee, both tournament locks, should go a long way in addition to finding success in the Ivy schedule. The way the committee weighs competitiveness against Indiana and UCLA — both losing by single digits — could be a factor in the seeding differences. Regardless of where the Tigers finish, they should be feared in every game.

Princeton earned a No. 10 seed last season and beat seventh-seeded NC State in the first round before facing Utah in the round of 32. It’s worth remembering that so much of March’s success was luck, timing and chance. However, I can’t help but think how Princeton could be even more of a threat after a year off.

The Tigers carry the same defensive foundation as last season, and they were a top-25 team in adjusted defensive rating last season and this season, according to CBB Analytics. Their offensive consistency is the difference, finishing 29th in adjusted offensive rating this season compared to 70th in the country a season ago.

Princeton dominates the paint, posting the fourth-highest percentage in the paint in all of Division I. The Tigers are monstrous offensively, hitting 39.2 percent of their own shots, the 12th-highest mark in the country.

Eli Mitchell, the perennial winner of the Ivy Defensive Player of the Year Award, has been crucial to that, but that has been bolstered by the emergence of fellow senior Chet Nweke. Nweke was solid as a rotation player, but she jumped into the starting lineup midway through the Ivy game. She has averaged over three rebounds per game in her 12 games as a starter, while providing the ability to switch and size the defense and quality decision-making.

Star guard Kaitlin Chen has grown significantly as a facilitator this season, and freshman Skye Belker has brought a fantastic secondary punch.

Sophomore Madison St. Rose is the reason to feel even more confident about Princeton.

Princeton 42, Penn 38 | 1:21 the 3rd

And-1! @nat_strose fight through contact and hit the bucket!

💻 – https://t.co/5cwp3wI4xy
📻 – https://t.co/VYUqubSAui
📊 – https://t.co/dWtQlClSBF#GetStops 🐯🏀 pic.twitter.com/fltBO2omvW

— Princeton WBB (@PrincetonWBB) March 15, 2024

She set the tone as the Ivy Rookie of the Year last season and came up big defensively in the NCAA Tournament. She blossomed into an efficient three-level scorer and a star alongside Chen as she earned second-team All-Ivy honors.

Her deep stroke is more consistent. She is comfortable getting to her pull-ups or playing out of the post. Few can contain her when she drives the lane, and her playmakers are also on the rise. She is one of the most versatile players in the conference, has a potential pro skill set, and continues to rise a lot. Don’t be surprised to hear her name called during the first weekend of the tournament.

Drake is the last domino

For bubble teams that had held their breath and were ready to breathe a sigh of relief after Princeton clinched the automatic berth, they may have to hold on a little longer.

Drake earned a narrow overtime win against Northern Iowa in the Missouri Valley Conference semifinals. He will face Missouri State in the conference championship on Sunday. Despite not losing to Missouri State in the only game this season, the Lady Bears have been pretty solid, defeating a strong Belmont team by 15 to make their way to the MVC title game. The Bulldogs were trailing at halftime before winning when they met three weeks ago.

Junior Lacey Stokes has been excellent in her first season in Springfield, but one of her quieter games (2-of-6 shooting for 9 points with seven turnovers in a loss in late February) came against Drake. After her strong performance in the MVC tournament, I can’t wait to see how she competes against Drake this time around (and how the Bulldogs stack up).

That begs the question: What happens if Drake loses in the MVC championship game? What if the game is close, say a buzzer beater loss?

survived. 𝗔advanced.#BeSyn | #DSMHometownTeam pic.twitter.com/sUYprZVo0H

— Drake Hoops for Women (@DrakeWBB) March 16, 2024

Especially since Columbia fell in Saturday’s Ivy title game, possibly knocking the Lions out of the top contenders, Drake would have a chance to sneak onto the field against some bubble teams. The Bulldogs don’t have a bad loss. They played a solid non-conference schedule, finishing 57th, and had a remarkable win over Iowa State – one that only looked to get better as the season progressed.

Of course, this is a long shot. But given how susceptible some bubble teams seem (Mississippi State, Penn State) to resume questions, I wonder if the committee will give one of the best and most consistent mid-major teams in the nation a chance after tested all season and never slips.

But something tells me that Drake’s trio of Katie Dinebier, Grace Berg, and Anna Miller won’t give the committee a reason to doubt.

Welcome to the Big Dance

• For the first time since 1995, UC Irvine earned its way to the NCAA Tournament, securing a trip after defeating UC Davis in the Big West final.

• No matter what happens in the Northeast Conference Championship, Sacred Heart has booked its trip to the NCAA Tournament.

• Despite splitting the season series with Sacred Heart and a 14-2 record in the NEC, Le Moyne is in its first season of DI play and will not be eligible for the postseason, something that once similarly affected Cal Baptist (in transition by DI in 2019).

• In a rematch of last season’s championship game, Holy Cross and Boston University square off in the Patriot Championship at noon (ET) on CBS Sports. Holy Cross won last season, earning Maureen Magarity’s first trip to the NCAA Tournament in Worcester, Massachusetts. The teams split the season series, with the Terriers winning the final game on March 2. A win for Boston would have secured Melissa Graves’ first tournament appearance as a head coach and Boston’s first March Madness experience since 2003.

List of seeds

(Drake photo: Matthew Holst/Getty Images)